Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3611 · DTW → EWR
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.