Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3611 · DTW → EWR
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.