Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3623 · SDF → EWR
departs 11:14 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.