Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3623 · SDF → EWR
departs 11:44 AM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.