Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3647 · EWR → ROC
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 11:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.