Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3647 · EWR → ROC
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 11:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.