Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3655
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3655 · PWM → EWR
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.