Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3683 · EWR → IND
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 8:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.