YX 3698 · SRQ → ORD

departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3698 · SRQ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?