Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 3698 · SRQ → ORD
departs 12:17 PM ET · arrives 1:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.85 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.