YX 4355 · DCA → BGR

departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at BGR that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

BGR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4355 · DCA → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?