YX 4382 · DCA → BTV

departs 2:48 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

BTV (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4382 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?