Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4402 · CMH → DCA
departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.