Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4402 · DCA → CMH
departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.46 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.