Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4417 · RDU → JFK
departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 25%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at JFK that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.