Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4417 · RDU → JFK
departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 25%
Fri 10/9 29%
Sat 10/10 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.