Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4423 · LGA → GSP
departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.