Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4423 · LGA → GSP
departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±11 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.