YX 4428 · DCA → MYR

took off 10:48 AM ET · expected to land 12:04 PM ET (scheduled 9:56 AM ET → 11:59 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MYR?

LIVE

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MYR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

MYR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip3.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4428 · DCA → MYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MYR?