YX 4428 · MYR → DCA

departs 12:06 PM ET · arrives 1:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MYR that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MYR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip3.68 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4428 · MYR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?