YX 4436 · STL → DCA

departs 10:38 AM CT · arrives 1:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4436 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?