YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

took off 6:39 PM CT · expected to land 9:09 PM ET (scheduled 6:26 PM CT → 9:45 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MEM are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?