Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4460 · DCA → MEM
departs 4:39 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.