YX 4487 · LGA → DCA

departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:01 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.15 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4487 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?