YX 4501 · DCA → IND

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4501 · DCA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?