Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4514 · GSO → DCA
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at GSO that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.20 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.