Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4517 · DCA → IND
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.06 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.