Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4518 LANDED 1:46 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4518 · MIA → XNA

took off 12:23 AM ET · landed 1:46 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4518 · MIA → XNA

Odds over time