Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4520
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4520 · DCA → IND
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.34 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.