Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4544
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4544 · DCA → BOS
departs 8:40 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.