Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4614 · LGA → CHS
departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 11:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CHS that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
CHS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.