Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4638 · ORD → DCA
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
DCA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.