YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4647 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?