YX 4647 · DCA → BUF

departs 9:41 AM ET · arrives 11:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

BUF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4647 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?