YX 4669 · DCA → BOS

departs 6:20 AM ET · arrives 7:57 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.06 in

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4669 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?