YX 4681 · DCA → MEM

departs 8:44 PM ET · arrives 10:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

MEM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4681 · DCA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?