Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4707 LANDED 7:07 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4707 · DTW → DCA

took off 6:03 AM ET · landed 7:07 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4707 · DTW → DCA

Odds over time