YX 4719 · DCA → LGA

departs 10:38 PM ET · arrives 12:03 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4719 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?