YX 4733 · DCA → ATL

departs 11:08 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4733 · DCA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?