YX 4736 · LGA → DCA

departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4736 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?