Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4739 · CVG → DCA
departs 5:04 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
5pm departures from CVG are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.