Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4739 · DCA → CVG
departs 2:46 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
DCA is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.