Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4747 · DCA → ECP
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 12:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.12 in
ECP (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 3.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.