Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4747 · ECP → DCA
departs 12:34 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.9 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.66 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.