Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4752
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4752 · RDU → DCA
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.