YX 4754 · LGA → DCA

departs 9:11 AM ET · arrives 10:44 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4754 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?