Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4773
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4773 · LGA → DCA
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 22%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.