YX 4777 · DCA → CMH

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.15 in

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4777 · DCA → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?