Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4784 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:05 AM ET, ETA 10:03 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

took off 9:05 AM ET · expected to land 10:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time