YX 4789 · ECP → DCA

departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 5:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling633 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4789 · ECP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?